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Quantum Computing Threat Assessment Report Released: Existing RSA Encryption Could Be Cracked by Quantum Computers Within 5 Years

The NSA released a threat assessment on quantum computing's impact on encryption systems, warning that RSA-2048 encryption could be broken by quantum computers before 2035.

Quantum Computing Threat Assessment Report Released

On October 29, 2030, the U.S. National Security Agency (NSA) released its latest "Quantum Computing Threat Assessment on Encryption Systems" report. The report warns that the RSA-2048 encryption algorithm, which currently secures internet communications, banking transactions, and personal data, could be broken by sufficiently powerful quantum computers via Shor's algorithm before 2035.

Shor's algorithm is a quantum algorithm proposed by mathematician Peter Shor in 1994 that can theoretically factor large integers in polynomial time, thereby breaking RSA encryption. However, realizing this threat requires a quantum computer with millions of logical qubits — the most advanced quantum processors today have approximately 1,000 physical qubits.

The NSA's Director of Cybersecurity stated: "Quantum computers breaking RSA-2048 is not a question of 'if' but 'when.' Our assessment is that this day could arrive between 2035 and 2040."

The report's key recommendation is to "start migrating now" — government agencies and critical infrastructure operators should immediately begin migrating from traditional encryption algorithms like RSA to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms. NIST standardized the first PQC algorithms (CRYSTALS-Kyber and CRYSTALS-Dilithium) in 2024.

The report specifically highlights the "harvest now, decrypt later" risk — attackers may be collecting current encrypted communications data, waiting for quantum computers to mature before decrypting it. This means today's encrypted data may no longer be secure in 5 to 10 years.

The Electronic Frontier Foundation (EFF) expressed concern about the report and called on internet service providers and technology companies to accelerate deployment of PQC encryption to protect ordinary users' communications privacy.

Apple, Google, and Signal have already begun integrating PQC encryption into their products. Signal was the first to deploy PQC key exchange mechanisms in its messaging protocol in 2023.